This week’s episodes of the What is The Future For Cities? podcast sparked a deep exploration of urban futures, focusing on energy systems and transformative planning. Episode 335R unpacked the research article “A framework for exploring futures of complex urban energy systems” by Sumedha Basu and Catherine S. E. Bale, while Episode 336I featured a compelling interview with Jon Mills, Director at Urbis, discussing urban evolution and energy transitions. Together, these episodes offered insights into navigating complexity, embracing uncertainty, and crafting vibrant cities through collaboration and innovation. Here are the key takeaways from the week.

Urban energy systems are intricate webs

Episode 335R framed urban energy systems as far more than power grids and generators – they’re dynamic networks shaped by a city’s unique history, social fabric, and governance. Basu and Bale describe them as complex adaptive systems, with interconnected subsystems, self-organising patterns, and unexpected outcomes that challenge straightforward forecasts. Melbourne’s sprawling layout, for instance, demands different energy solutions than a compact city like Tokyo.

The research critiques traditional planning for its narrow focus, often tied to emission targets or short-term goals. These methods can overlook critical links, such as how electric vehicle charging impacts power grids or how heating systems strain infrastructure. In Episode 336I, Jon Mills reinforced this, noting that technologies like mobile networks reshaped cities unpredictably over the past 25 years. Data centres, using power equivalent to 50,000 homes, further complicate urban planning when not integrated strategically. Both episodes highlight the need to understand these intricate webs to build resilient urban energy systems.

Uncertainty calls for adaptable, forward-thinking strategies

Episode 335R emphasized that urban energy futures are inherently unpredictable. Looking decades ahead – say, to 2075 – is like forecasting weather a month out: the further out, the less certain. Unexpected disruptions (black swan events) or ignored risks (grey rhinos) can derail plans, yet many models assume rational markets or linear results. Basu and Bale advocate for “futures thinking,” exploring multiple scenarios – possible, likely, or preferred – to prepare cities for the unknown.

Jon Mills, in Episode 336I, echoed this need for adaptability, calling for bold transformation over outdated planning habits. He pointed out how short political cycles disrupt long-term strategies, with Australia’s energy debates – renewables versus nuclear – often swayed by electoral priorities rather than cohesive vision. Both episodes suggest cities need flexible frameworks, with ongoing reviews and “signposts” to track emerging trends. This adaptability helps cities respond to surprises without stalling progress.

Collaboration drives vibrant urban futures

Episode 335R stressed the power of collaborative planning, urging cities to involve diverse voices beyond experts. Citizens’ perspectives enrich strategies, ensuring plans reflect real-world needs and avoid blind spots. Basu and Bale’s framework calls for mapping stakeholders and their connections, fostering dialogue to shape robust energy futures.

Jon Mills amplified this in Episode 336I, advocating for cities planned with community priorities at heart, not just profit. He cited London’s Olympic regeneration, where rapid change left some locals feeling sidelined, and warned against privatised public spaces. Mills’ work at Urbis focuses on aligning developers with broader goals through incentives, though he noted the challenge of some prioritising financial gain. He referenced Brisbane’s green building incentives, where loopholes led to mixed outcomes, underscoring the need for careful governance. Both episodes show that collaboration – across communities, governments, and businesses – is essential for dynamic urban transformation.

Energy transitions demand holistic planning

Episode 335R laid the groundwork by framing energy transitions as pivotal to urban evolution. Basu and Bale highlight that current models often miss cross-sector impacts, like how rooftop solar affects grid stability, or the resources embedded in infrastructure. Their framework emphasizes understanding a city’s energy context and mapping uncertainties, such as technological advances or policy shifts, to craft integrated plans.

Jon Mills brought this to life in Episode 336I, discussing Australia’s push for 82% renewable energy and the practical hurdles of urban integration. He shared his experience at a solar farm where wildlife thrived alongside panels, showing how thoughtful planning can yield co-benefits like habitat restoration. Yet, he also flagged issues like ageing grids needing upgrades to handle new demands. Mills’ projects at Urbis aim to weave energy solutions into developments, ensuring new buildings support future needs like fibre connectivity or renewable power. Together, the episodes reveal that energy transitions require comprehensive, forward-looking planning.

Governance must steer deliberate urban evolution

Both episodes underscored the critical role of governance in shaping urban futures. Episode 335R’s “futures governance” advocates for adaptive strategies that anticipate side effects and include regular reassessments. Without political commitment to long-term vision, cities risk policy paralysis, falling back on short-term fixes that sidestep larger challenges.

Jon Mills, in Episode 336I, called for governance reform to embed transformative practices into planning systems. He highlighted Urbis’ work with NBN to create guidelines for smart infrastructure, ensuring developments are future-ready. However, he cautioned against pitfalls, like developers exploiting incentives, as seen in some Australian cities. Mills’ concept of “conscious urban evolution” aligns with Basu and Bale’s call for deliberate planning that balances innovation with community needs. Both episodes emphasize that governance must foster collaboration and accountability to prevent fragmented, profit-driven urban growth.

Why these insights matter

This week’s episodes provide a blueprint for cities navigating a complex future. Episode 335R’s research offers a theoretical lens, urging cities to grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and diverse voices. Episode 336I translates this into practice, with Jon Mills’ real-world insights into energy transitions, governance, and community-driven change. Together, they envision cities as evolving systems needing bold, collaborative, and adaptable planning.

For urban planners, policymakers, and residents, these insights are a rallying cry. Cities like Sydney or Brisbane can’t rely on rigid models or disconnected decisions. They need frameworks that integrate energy, technology, and community priorities, with governance that ensures cohesive outcomes. As Jon Mills put it, “We need to collaborate for a positive future.” Whether upgrading infrastructure, engaging locals, or anticipating unintended consequences, the path forward requires deliberate action.

What’s holding your city back – energy, planning, or collaboration? How can we shape vibrant urban futures together? Share your thoughts and check out Episodes 335R and 336I for more inspiration.

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Next week we are turning towards a very important part of the future of cities: the next generation! We will explore different aspects of involving the current kids into the future they will inherit from us, with Alison Watson, Aaron Stupple and Logan Chipkin as interviewees across the next two weeks!

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Share your thoughts – I’m at wtf4cities@gmail.com or @WTF4Cities on Twitter/X.

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