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Are you interested in existential hope instead of existential risk?

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Our summary today works with the article titled Existential risk and existential hope: Definitions from 2015 by Owen Cotton-Barratt and Toby Ord, published by the Future of Humanity Institute.

This is a great preparation to our next interview with Allison Duettmann in episode 252 talking optimism and existential hope.

Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see the opposite of existential risk in our doom and gloom world. This article presents the existential hope concept, the chance of something extremely good happening.

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Welcome to today’s What is The Future For Cities podcast and its Research episode; my name is Fanni, and today I will introduce a research paper by summarising it. The episode really is just a short summary of the original paper, and, in case it is interesting enough, I would encourage everyone to check out the whole paper. Stay tuned until because I will give you the 3 most important things and some questions which would be interesting to discuss.

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Existential risks are catastrophic events that could either wipe out intelligent life or drastically limit our future potential. These risks, whether from natural disasters or human-made threats like oppressive regimes, highlight the fragility of our existence. But alongside these dangers lies the concept of existential hope. Just as some events could spell our doom, others—termed existential eucatastrophes—could significantly enhance our future prospects. These breakthroughs could unlock new possibilities, ensuring a thriving future for humanity. The article presents a narrative of duality, urging us to not only avert existential risks but also to actively pursue opportunities that could lead to humanity’s greatest achievements. In essence, it provides a framework for understanding the immense stakes and potentials of our collective future.

Existential risk is defined as a potential event or series of events that could either annihilate intelligent life originating from Earth or irreversibly diminish its potential for desirable future development. This definition was originally proposed by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, who has been instrumental in formalizing the concept. The simplest way to understand existential risk is to think of it as the chance of an event so catastrophic that it ends human civilization or prevents any future recovery. For example, an asteroid strike that wipes out all intelligent life would be considered an existential risk. However, this straightforward definition may not capture all the nuances involved.

While the simple definition of existential risk as something leading to extinction is clear and easy to grasp, it may not be sufficient. The authors proposed a broader understanding that includes not only the complete extinction of humanity but also events that could drastically limit humanity’s future potential. For instance, a scenario where a totalitarian regime takes control of Earth and prevents any future progress or freedom, ultimately leading to human extinction, should be considered an existential risk even if the extinction itself is delayed. This perspective considers the impact on the potential for future flourishing, not just survival. Therefore, existential risks include any events that might drastically and permanently reduce the quality of human life or eliminate the possibility of achieving desirable outcomes in the future.

One of the challenges in defining existential risk is the concept of potential. Potential is not a binary attribute; it exists on a spectrum. For example, if humanity enters a period of totalitarian rule where the chances of escaping and returning to a state of flourishing are minimal, but not zero, the situation becomes complex. Is this an existential catastrophe if there is still a slim chance of recovery? The authors suggested that understanding potential in terms of expected value can help clarify this issue.

Thus, the authors proposed a new definition of existential catastrophe based on the loss of expected value. This approach considers an existential catastrophe to be an event that causes a significant reduction in the expected value of the future. Expected value here refers to the combination of outcomes that are possible and the likelihood of those outcomes occurring. This definition allows for a more nuanced understanding of events that may not lead to immediate extinction but could still drastically reduce the potential for a desirable future. For example, entering a totalitarian regime might reduce the expected value of the future because it limits opportunities for development and progress. Even if there is a small chance of escaping this regime and recovering, the initial loss of expected value is significant and qualifies as an existential catastrophe under this new definition.

The concept of existential eucatastrophe, which refers to events that dramatically increase the expected value of the future, is introduced as an opposite concept. An example of an existential eucatastrophe could be the emergence of life on Earth, which significantly increased the expected value of the planet’s future. The authors suggested that just as humanity should strive to avoid existential catastrophes, we should also actively seek out and promote existential eucatastrophes. These are events or developments that could open up new possibilities for flourishing and significantly improve the future. This concept leads to the idea of existential hope, which is the pursuit of positive outcomes on a large scale. It involves not only mitigating risks but also creating opportunities for humanity to achieve its fullest potential.

While “extinction risk” is often clear and accessible, the broader concept of existential risk is essential for a more comprehensive understanding of humanity’s long-term future. Introducing ideas like existential eucatastrophes and hope adds a valuable perspective on positive future possibilities. The authors aimed to guide better decision-making and strategy by emphasizing the importance of managing both risks and hopes. By broadening definitions and considering future outcomes, we can more effectively navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.

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What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Do you have any follow up question? Let me know on Twitter at WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the transcripts and show notes are available! Additionally, I will highly appreciate if you consider subscribing to the podcast or on the website. I hope this was an interesting paper for you as well, and thanks for tuning in!

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Finally, as the most important things, I would like to highlight 3 aspects:

1. Existential risks are events that could either wipe out humanity or drastically limit its future potential.
2. Existential catastrophes could be defined by the loss of expected value, which accounts for events that reduce humanity’s future potential even without immediate extinction.
3. The concept of “existential hope” is introduced, highlighting the importance of pursuing transformative events that can greatly improve humanity’s future prospects.

Additionally, it would be great to talk about the following questions:

1. How might emerging technologies influence our ability to prevent existential risks and foster existential hope?
2. How can we balance the urgency of mitigating existential risks with the need to pursue long-term opportunities for existential hope?
3. In what ways can we actively pursue existential hope in our personal and professional lives?

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