Listen to the episode:

Check out the shownotes through this link.

---

Are you interested in existential risks?

---

Our summary today works with the article titled Defence in depth against human extinction: prevention, response, resilience, and why they all matter from 2020 by Owen Cotton-Barratt, Max Daniel, and Anders Sandberg, published in the Global Policy journal. This is a great preparation to our next interview with Anders Sandberg in episode 214 talking about the humanity’s existential risks, among others. Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see what can jeopardise humanity’s, and thus cities’ future. This article investigates the classification of existential risks to help prepare for those.

[intro music]

---

Welcome to today’s What is The Future For Cities podcast and its Research episode; my name is Fanni, and today I will introduce a research paper by summarising it. The episode really is just a short summary of the original paper, and, in case it is interesting enough, I would encourage everyone to check out the whole paper. Stay tuned until because I will give you the 3 most important things and some questions which would be interesting to discuss.

---

[music]

Human extinction represents not just the loss of current lives but also the cessation of future potential and contributions. To assess the risk of extinction within this century, studies employ diverse methods to evaluate the probability of various catastrophes, including asteroid impacts, nuclear wars, and pandemics. It’s crucial to identify and categorize these potential causes to guide research and policymaking effectively. This requires pinpointing key intervention points in the extinction process to develop tailored prevention strategies, focusing on overarching threats rather than specific details of natural processes or ecosystems.

An event capable of causing human extinction would possess unprecedented features. To address such threats, three defence layers are essential: prevention, to stop harmful processes; response, to mitigate impacts of recognized threats; and resilience, to recover from significant damages. Effective risk management involves investing across these areas, underlining the role of global governance. This comprehensive strategy focuses on broad defence mechanisms to tackle the unique challenges of extinction risks, emphasizing the necessity for extensive risk management efforts.

The essence of prevention lies in the early detection and proactive countermeasures against both natural and human-made risks. Natural risks, like asteroid impacts, demand vigilant monitoring and the development of intervention technologies, while human-made risks necessitate an understanding of their potential scale and intent, which can vary from unintentional consequences of new technologies to deliberate acts of terrorism. Effective prevention strategies thus hinge on collaborative research, international safety standards, and robust global governance structures that can address the complex dynamics of collective action and extremism.

The response layer underscores the necessity of quick, coordinated action to lessen the initial impact and growth mechanisms of threats, categorized into large impacts, leverage points, and cascading effects. Large impacts, such as asteroid strikes, require pre-emptive action since real-time responses are limited. Leverage risks, present in both natural and human-made systems, can escalate rapidly but can be mitigated by targeting specific critical points. Cascading risks unfold over time, providing more opportunities for intervention. The main challenges lie in promoting cooperation, early risk identification, and fast response to escalating situations. Strategies include advance mitigation for large impacts, targeted interventions at leverage points, and flexible responses to cascading risks to avert catastrophes.

Resilience, the third pillar, focuses on the capacity to recover from and adapt to significant damages, ensuring the continuity of human society. To avert human extinction from global catastrophes, addressing both direct and indirect resilience threats is essential. Direct threats include disasters or diseases that could eliminate humanity, alongside targeted attempts by intelligent beings. Indirect threats involve environmental devastation or the loss of essential societal functions. Resilience strategies encompass expanding to other planets, forming isolated communities for protection against spreading threats, and establishing late-stage responses like underground refuges for post-catastrophe survival. These measures emphasize the importance of diverse and proactive planning against various catastrophic scenarios to safeguard human society’s future.

Effectively managing extinction risks requires a three-tiered defence strategy: prevention, response, and resilience. The most significant risks are those that could breach all three layers. Central to effective risk management is the allocation of resources across these defence layers in a manner that maximizes the impact of mitigation efforts. Rather than concentrating resources on a single defence layer, a balanced distribution ensures that all aspects of risk management are strengthened. This includes investing in early detection systems and deflection technologies for preventing asteroid impacts, as well as enhancing societal resilience to ensure survival against a broad spectrum of threats.

Reducing extinction risks hinges on bolstering our prevention, response, and resilience strategies, targeting not only direct threats like asteroids but also broader risk categories. Essential to this approach is addressing underlying vulnerabilities, such as global interdependencies and the potential for compound risks from consecutive catastrophes, that weaken our overall defences. A comprehensive risk management strategy must therefore integrate measures against both specific and indirect factors, underscoring the importance of policies and research aimed at reinforcing our defence layers against extinction. Managing extinction risks requires a holistic, forward-thinking strategy that spans immediate threat mitigation to long-term resilience building. Through global cooperation, innovation, and a commitment to safeguarding future generations, we can develop a robust defence against the daunting array of existential threats facing humanity.

[music]

---

What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Do you have any follow up question? Let me know on Twitter at WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the transcripts and show notes are available! Additionally, I will highly appreciate if you consider subscribing to the podcast or on the website. I hope this was an interesting paper for you as well, and thanks for tuning in!

---

[music]

Finally, as the most important things, I would like to highlight 3 aspects:

1. To effectively manage extinction risks, it’s essential to invest in three defence layers: prevention, response, and resilience, ensuring comprehensive risk management across different stages of potential catastrophic events.
2. Identifying and categorizing the origins and scaling mechanisms of risks, including natural disasters, technological advancements, and human actions, are crucial for developing targeted interventions and policy recommendations.
3. Strengthening global governance and cooperation among nations, alongside focusing on underlying risk factors such as global interdependencies, is vital for enhancing humanity’s overall defences against existential threats.

Additionally, it would be great to talk about the following questions:

1. In light of the potential for compound risks, where one catastrophe triggers another, what new research methodologies are needed to better understand and plan for these complex scenarios?
2. Given the importance of global cooperation in managing extinction risks, what mechanisms or platforms could enhance international collaboration and trust among nations?
3. In the context of resilience against catastrophic events, how could the concept of self-sufficient, isolated communities evolve with the advent of emerging technologies?
4. How do you think individual actions and choices could contribute to strengthening our global resilience against potential extinction events?

[outro music]

---