This week on the What is the future for cities? podcast, two episodes examined energy’s role in urban evolution. Tuesday’s research episode (349R) summarised the 2022 article “Superabundant energy – What will we do with it?” by Austin Vernon and Eli Dourado, envisioning a world where energy is too cheap to meter, enabling breakthroughs in travel, materials, and infrastructure. This led into Thursday’s panel discussion (350P) on the urban energy matrix with Alan Pears, Adam Dorr, Ramez Naam, and Mark Nelson, who debated sources, costs, and long-term planning amid AI demands and clean tech advances.

These conversations align with 2025 trends, where AI’s energy hunger and falling clean power costs challenge cities to rethink grids and consumption. The research highlighted Jevons’ paradox – efficiency leading to more use – while the panel stressed balancing nuclear, solar, and batteries for reliable supply. Together, they paint a future where abundant energy drives economic growth and urban adaptability.

From these episodes, five key lessons stand out on how energy shapes city futures.

Lesson 1: Superabundant energy flips constraints, enabling radical urban mobility

The research episode argued that energy at 40 kilowatts per person – double Iceland’s 2019 use – could transform travel via Jevons’ paradox, where efficiency boosts consumption. Electric planes from local airports could cut regional trip times, while VTOL taxis enable longer commutes. Suborbital flights might make New York to Shanghai 39 minutes, using 20 times a 747’s energy but feasible if cheap.

The panel reinforced this, with Adam Dorr noting plummeting costs making infrastructure overhauls viable. Ramez Naam highlighted AI’s role in optimising designs, though physical builds lag. Mark Nelson pointed to AI data centres rivalling city demands, suggesting nuclear for constant loads like transport hubs. This lesson shows abundant energy expanding urban reach: cities could sprawl sustainably or densify with fast links, boosting economic ties and redefining daily life.

Lesson 2: Cheap energy unlocks new materials and infrastructure, solving scarcity

Traditional limits like sand shortages for concrete could vanish, as the research proposed sintering desert sand with high heat – consuming 34% of global energy but affordable if abundant. Plastics from CO2 and seawater, or quicklime from air, become competitive below 2 cents per kilowatt-hour, turning waste into resources.

Panelists like Alan Pears questioned time frames, noting 7% discount rates undervalue long-term projects like 1860s rail lines that shaped cities. Adam Dorr saw 2045 costs enabling carbon-negative builds, while Ramez Naam warned of AI intelligence outpacing physical changes. Mark Nelson highlighted nuclear’s density for urban needs. This lesson emphasises energy’s material revolution: cities could build resilient structures cheaply, addressing climate risks and fostering innovation in construction for economic gains.

Lesson 3: Energy abundance demands policy shifts to overcome regulatory hurdles

The research noted regulation as the main barrier, with nuclear approvals stagnant since 1975, delaying clean sources like reactors for drone logistics or desalination. Cheap power could enable desert cities or vertical farms, but permits slow progress.

Alan Pears in the panel stressed long-term planning over short discounting, while Adam Dorr cautioned against optimising for vanishing scenarios. Ramez Naam urged policy for clean versions of current energy, and Mark Nelson advocated nuclear for AI-scale demands. This lesson calls for agile regulations: cities must lobby for streamlined approvals to harness abundance, turning potential into economic engines like efficient grids and new industries.

Lesson 4: AI and data centres highlight energy’s urban scale and source debates

AI’s constant load could match a million people’s needs, per Mark Nelson, with centres like Meta’s nuclear deals showing trends. The research saw portable reactors powering drone swarms, while the panel debated sources – solar’s intermittency vs. nuclear’s reliability.

Ramez Naam noted AI’s cheap intelligence aiding planning but not physical builds. Adam Dorr predicted labour/energy drops enabling overhauls, and Alan Pears questioned infrastructure timelines. This lesson reveals energy’s urban pivot: cities must integrate AI demands with diverse sources for power security, driving economic hubs like tech clusters.

Lesson 5: Abundant energy fosters prosperity but risks carbon shortages and overuse

The research warned of pulling too much CO2 for materials, potentially needing fossil drilling for carbon – a “carbon shortage” irony. Jevons’ paradox could spike global use for travel alone to today’s total.

Panelists like Adam Dorr saw unlocks for civilisation, with Ramez Naam optimistic on trends but urging choices. Mark Nelson stressed human organisation for nuclear, and Alan Pears highlighted adaptation. This lesson frames energy as prosperity’s bedrock: cities could thrive economically but must manage overuse through smart policy for balanced growth.

This week’s podcast episodes offered a compelling vision of how superabundant energy could redefine urban landscapes, as explored in episode 349‘s analysis of transformative possibilities like suborbital travel and carbon-negative materials. Episode 350‘s panel, featuring Alan Pears, Adam Dorr, Ramez Naam, and Mark Nelson, provided a robust discussion on balancing nuclear, solar, and AI-driven energy demands, grounding the research in practical urban challenges. Five key lessons emerged: radical mobility shifts, material innovations, policy agility, AI’s scale, and managed prosperity. These insights highlight cities’ potential to harness 2025’s clean tech trends for economic growth, provided they navigate regulatory and consumption challenges.

The episodes underscore the need for strategic foresight in urban planning to leverage energy abundance effectively, ensuring resilient, innovative city futures that drive economic vitality while addressing environmental risks.

Next week we are investigating act-now, prepare for, and learn and watch trends with Petra Hurtado!

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