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Are you interested in space colonisation?

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Our summary today works with the article titled Space colonization: A study of supply and demand from 2011 by Dr. Dana Andrews, Gordon R. Woodcock, and Brian Bloudek, presented at the 62nd International Astronautical Congress.

This is a great preparation to our next panel conversation with Dr Anders Sandberg, Xavier de Kestelier, and Thomas Gooch in episode 250 talking about space cities and their different aspects.

Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see how space colonization and thus space cities can be approached from the supply and demand perspective. This article looks at the fundamental economics of people working (and playing) in space, and shows scenarios that should result in successful colonies on the moon.

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Welcome to today’s What is The Future For Cities podcast and its Research episode; my name is Fanni, and today I will introduce a research paper by summarising it. The episode really is just a short summary of the original paper, and, in case it is interesting enough, I would encourage everyone to check out the whole paper. Stay tuned until because I will give you the 3 most important things and some questions which would be interesting to discuss.

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As Earth’s supply of industrial metals dwindles and demand rises, the Moon’s vast, untapped reserves offer a solution. This paper envisions a future where, much like the expansion of the American West, government and industry collaborate to establish lunar mining operations. Initially remote-controlled, these operations will eventually require human presence, leading to the growth of lunar colonies. This journey reflects humanity’s drive to secure a sustainable future by reaching beyond our planet.

As global demand for energy increases and accessible terrestrial metal resources dwindle, the pressure on acquiring these metals grows. Metals like platinum, essential for renewable energy technologies, are becoming increasingly scarce and expensive. The decreasing ore grades on Earth mean that more energy is required to extract metals, exacerbating the energy crisis. The Moon, with its untapped resources, presents a potential solution. For example, platinum prices are expected to surge, making lunar mining a viable alternative for sustaining the world’s energy needs.

Achieving cost-effective access to space is crucial for lunar mining. The paper proposes a Fully Reusable Earth to Orbit System (FRETOS), which would operate similarly to an airline, significantly reducing costs. A key component is the use of a momentum-exchange tether, allowing suborbital payloads to be transferred to stable orbits. This system would decrease the required velocity for launches, reduce reentry speeds, and lower maintenance costs, making space travel more affordable and frequent.

The Tether Upper Stage (TUS) and Space Operations Center (SOC) are crucial for reducing lunar mining and colonization costs. The TUS captures suborbital payloads and transfers them to stable orbit, while the SOC, combined with a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Station, manages crew quarters, tourists, and cargo. Multiple TUS and SOC systems around Earth ensure frequent and reliable transport. Reusable Solar Electric Tugs (ReSETs) move cargo and personnel between the SOC and a Transfer Station near the Earth-Moon Lagrange Point (L1). These tugs, using advanced thrusters and cryogenic storage, efficiently transport heavy payloads, like a Heavy Lunar Lander, to lunar orbit. The Lunar Lander, equipped with redundant engines for reliability, safely delivers significant payloads, such as mining bases, from orbit to the Moon’s surface, supporting the establishment of lunar mining operations.

Lunar mining focuses on extracting Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) and Rare Earth Elements (REEs), which are abundant on the Moon’s surface. These metals, essential for advanced technologies, could be economically extracted and sent back to Earth. The delivery of mined metals to Earth involves using high-technology slings to launch payloads into Earth intercept trajectories. This method allows for the efficient and cost-effective transport of rare metals from the Moon to Earth, providing a steady supply of these critical resources. The total cost of developing a lunar mining project over twenty years is estimated at around $100 billion in 2010 dollars. The paper suggests that while these costs are significant, the potential return on investment, particularly from the extraction of platinum and other rare metals, could be substantial, with estimates of up to $1.1 trillion in returns over the project’s lifetime.

A successful lunar mining project requires competitive pricing of lunar products compared to Earth-sourced equivalents. The project should be sponsored by a national or international organization, similar to the U.S. 1862 Railway Act, which provided incentives for infrastructure development. Government involvement would be essential for legal oversight and investor protection. The project should be privately led to ensure profitability, with the government setting legal precedents and providing loan guarantees for demonstrated progress.

While the program does not specifically focus on colonization, provisions for human habitation are included in the design. As tele-operated mining progresses, the need for human presence on the Moon will grow, leading to the establishment of lunar bases for maintenance and oversight. Eventually, these bases could expand into small colonies, potentially including tourist facilities, signalling the beginning of a more permanent human presence on the Moon.

The success of lunar colonization and mining hinges on accurately predicting the supply and demand of critical metals. The economic viability of such ventures depends on the development of technologies that reduce costs and increase efficiency. The authors stress the importance of preparing for lunar mining by advancing key technologies and exploring the Moon’s resources. Cooperation among international and private entities will be crucial in realizing this vision, which could lead to significant economic and technological advancements in the coming decades.

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What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Do you have any follow up question? Let me know on Twitter at WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the transcripts and show notes are available! Additionally, I will highly appreciate if you consider subscribing to the podcast or on the website. I hope this was an interesting paper for you as well, and thanks for tuning in!

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Finally, as the most important things, I would like to highlight 3 aspects:

1. Lunar mining offers a solution to Earth’s dwindling metal resources, with the Moon’s vast reserves becoming economically viable as terrestrial supplies run low.
2. Achieving affordable space access through reusable launch systems and infrastructure like Tether Upper Stages (TUS) and Space Operations Centers (SOC) is crucial for successful lunar operations.
3. The development of lunar colonies is a natural progression, beginning with tele-operated mining and evolving into human presence as the need for maintenance and oversight grows.

Additionally, it would be great to talk about the following questions:

1. How might lunar mining reshape global economies and resource distribution on Earth?
2. What challenges could arise from establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon?
3. If given the opportunity, would you consider living or working on the Moon? Why or why not?
4. How do you envision your life being impacted by the development of lunar colonies and space mining?

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