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Check out the shownotes through this link.

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Are you interested in how our comfort contributes to climate change?

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Our summary today works with the white paper titled Wreaking HVAC on our planet – A Conry Tech report on the impact of comfort on our planet and the scale of the problem by Sam Ringwaldt, published on the Conry Tech website. This is a great preparation to our next panel conversation with Sam Ringwaldt in episode 202 about the opportunities in air conditioning. Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see how heating, ventilation and air-conditioning contributes to pollution. This report proves the scale of the problem and solutions through better systems and energy efficiency.

[intro music]

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Welcome to today’s What is The Future For Cities podcast and its Research episode; my name is Fanni, and today I will introduce a research paper by summarising it. The episode really is just a short summary of the original paper, and, in case it is interesting enough, I would encourage everyone to check out the whole paper. Stay tuned until because I will give you the 3 most important things and some questions which would be interesting to discuss.

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The world is facing a critical challenge: the very technology we use to cool ourselves, primarily through the Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning – also known as HVAC industry, significantly contributes to climate change. This industry is a top emitter of CO2, outpacing emissions from cars, mining, and even aviation, with its impact growing each year. With global temperatures rising, air conditioning demand is set to triple by 2050, becoming vital for survival in hotter climates. Moreover, HVAC systems’ vast energy consumption hampers the shift to renewable energy and burdens power grids. Although heat pumps offer a way to cut emissions, their uptake is lagging. Tackling this challenge demands recognizing the HVAC industry’s substantial role in environmental degradation.

In 2022, energy-related CO2 emissions reached 36.8 billion tonnes globally, with 15% attributed to the HVAC industry, which also accounts for 14% of global emissions through heating (10%) and cooling (4%). Cooling energy use has tripled since 1990, with fossil fuels powering 63% of building heating. Despite being difficult to accurately track, HVAC emissions are estimated at 5.5 billion tonnes annually, making it a major climate change contributor, rivalling emissions from sectors like vehicles, aviation, and agriculture. However, HVAC remains under-addressed for its environmental impact, with outdated heating and cooling technologies emphasizing the need for urgent environmental reforms.

As electric vehicle adoption increases and bans on new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are implemented, car emissions will likely drop significantly. In contrast, energy demand for cooling technologies, such as air conditioning – also known as AC, is expected to rise by 40% by 2030, which could significantly increase global emissions. Despite higher air conditioning rates in countries like Japan and the US compared to Europe, rising global temperatures are driving up cooling demand everywhere, particularly in developing nations like Brazil and India, potentially escalating HVAC industry emissions.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a “looming cold crunch” as cooling demand is set to outpace heating, with air conditioning use predicted to triple by 2050. Increased cooling needs, coupled with the widespread use of inefficient air conditioning units, especially in regions with low current adoption, threaten to boost emissions. The presence of high-efficiency models highlights the need for stricter efficiency standards and broader access to energy-efficient cooling solutions to mitigate the environmental impact of growing cooling demand.

Fossil fuels meet over 63% of the heating energy demand, significantly polluting from the HVAC industry’s use of coal, oil, and gas. While transitioning to renewables and electrifying systems can reduce HVAC’s impact, renewables only cover 30% of global energy needs. Heat pumps could reduce heating emissions by up to 93% but would raise electrical demand, possibly outgrowing renewable energy supply. Air conditioning’s energy use exceeds global wind capacity and doubles solar capacity, underscoring the critical need to cut consumption from inefficient devices for a sustainable energy transition.

Meeting 2023’s global demand for air conditioning would need 6 trillion solar panels, covering an area as large as the UK, or over 300,000 wind turbines. Despite improvements, the most efficient air conditioners are twice as efficient as average ones at comparable prices. Without adopting these efficient models and enhancing building performance, global electricity demand for cooling could increase by 40% by 2030.

The report suggests 4 crucial steps to making HVAC a net-zero industry:

1. Electrifying heating by heat pumps and renewable energy sources to eliminate reliance on fossil fuels.
2. HVAC units becoming more energy efficient and their use increasingly incentivised
3. Increasing renewable energy generation to outpace energy demand and consumption of heating and cooling
4. Air conditioning with demand flexibility for energy use.

Despite government focus on heat pumps for climate action, escalating temperatures and air-conditioning use demand tackling AC energy consumption. The self-regulated AC industry’s efficiency standards fall short of needed environmental impact reductions. Most air conditioners are inefficient, using about 60% of a building’s power, with regulations emphasizing summer efficiency but overlooking year-round use, causing high inefficiency, costs, and emissions. Immediate action is needed for stricter regulation and a global shift to energy-efficient air conditioning. This move would aid the shift to renewables and spotlight the HVAC industry as a key player in cutting global emissions.

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What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Do you have any follow up question? Let me know on Twitter at WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the transcripts and show notes are available! Additionally, I will highly appreciate if you consider subscribing to the podcast or on the website. I hope this was an interesting paper for you as well, and thanks for tuning in!

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Finally, as the most important things, I would like to highlight 3 aspects:

1. The HVAC industry is a significant contributor to global CO2 emissions, with its impact expected to grow as demand for air conditioning triples by 2050 due to rising global temperatures.
2. Energy-efficient technologies and renewable energy sources, including heat pumps, can substantially reduce the environmental impact of HVAC, but their adoption is currently insufficient.
3. Immediate global action and stricter regulations are necessary to transition to energy-efficient air conditioning, which could lead to significant reductions in CO2 emissions and support the shift to renewable energy.

Additionally, it would be great to talk about the following questions:

1. What innovations are key to sustainable HVAC development?
2. How critical is government intervention in accelerating HVAC efficiency?
3. What role do you see for grassroots movements versus governmental regulation in driving this change?

[outro music]

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