Listen to the episode:

You can find the shownotes through this link.

---

Are you interested in why we have pessimistic and optimistic views on climate change?

Our summary today works with the article titled Pessimism and optimism in the debate on climate change: A critical analysis from 2021 by Anders Nordgren, published in Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics. Since we are investigating the future of cities, I thought it would be interesting to see how our attitudes can influence this debate. This article presents why such attitudes, concerns and opportunities are present.

[intro music]

Welcome to today’s What is The Future For Cities podcast and its Research episode; my name is Fanni, and today I will introduce a research paper by summarising it. The episode really is just a short summary of the original paper, and, in case it is interesting enough, I would encourage everyone to check out the whole paper. Stay tuned until because I will give you the 3 most important things and some questions which would be interesting to discuss with a special attention to Australian cities.

[music]

In the debate on climate change, commentators often express pessimistic or optimistic views, not just in pop-culture but in academia as well. The aim of this paper is to investigate different kinds of pessimistic and optimistic views and suggest explanations of the diversity of views. In this article, pessimism and optimism is an argued position of expecting a negative or positive outcome of processes or actions. A person can be pessimist regarding some aspects and an optimist regarding others, like mitigation of climate change or adaptation to climate change. The paper mainly focuses on argued positions concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change, and specific measures of mitigation of climate change. For the discussion, the author focused only on positions that accept, that climate change is real and to a substantial extent caused by human action, and that climate change is a serious and urgent problem.

The first aspect is climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, focusing on scientific views which show a varying degree of pessimism. Scientists have been warning of global warming for a longer time now – like in episode 7 the summary of World Scientists Warning of a climate emergency from 2020. Scientists generally agree that climate change is a serious and urban problem but disagree on the level of seriousness and urgency. They are to a varying extent pessimistic concerning its trajectory and adverse effects, like extreme weather events and spreading of diseases. Most scientists seem very pessimistic, some somewhat less so. An explanation to the disagreement on the trajectory and impact of climate change is the uncertainty of climate models, due to their complexity and unforeseen consequences. With this, it becomes clear that science cannot in a simple and straightforward way tell it like it is.

The differences in terms of pessimism and optimism are much more substantial in the multidisciplinary debate on mitigation of climate change. Mitigation pessimists stress that it is too late to effectively mitigate, while mitigation optimists maintain that it is still not too late. The pessimists highlight that climate change cannot be prevented, but we should not see our efforts as meaningless and put efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation optimists admit that climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process constitute a serious and urban problem but argue that there is still time to do something about it with promising mitigation measures and historical examples. Mitigation proposals depend also upon political ideologies which provides a conceptual and evaluative framework and influences also the expected outcomes. Political ideologies can enhance pessimism and optimism in mitigation and adaptation.

The specific mitigation measures can be viewed in economic and technological measures, political measures, and individual measures. With economic and technological measures, three interrelated issues are important: the power of the fossil fuel industry, growth and emissions, and energy. It is an overall accepted idea that climate mitigation needs to include political measures, although two issues emerge: national politics and international cooperation. Individuals may also undertake mitigation measures and raise two issues: psychology and activism.

It is problematic to speak about pessimism and optimism in general terms. Pessimism and optimism may concern different aspects of climate change, such as climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change or specific measures of mitigation. These aspects are vital to distinguish, because a person can be pessimist concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process and optimist concerning mitigation of climate change.

The diversity of pessimistic and optimistic views has two major explanations. The first is the uncertainty of scientific climate models. Climate systems are dynamic and non-linear, and therefore climate models are extremely sensitive to initial conditions and future emissions. This uncertainty opens for a variety of interpretations, for example, more or less pessimistic views concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process. A second explanatory factor is the influence of evaluative and ideological assumptions. Political ideologies provide conceptual and evaluative frameworks for mitigation proposals, but their background assumption may also influence the expected outcome of various mitigation measures.

[music]

---

What was the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Do you have any follow up question? Let me know on Twitter at WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the transcripts and show notes are available! Additionally, I will highly appreciate if you consider subscribing to the podcast or on the website. I hope this was an interesting paper for you as well, and thanks for tuning in!

---

[music]

Finally, as the most important things, I would like to highlight 3 aspects:

1. There is an observable pessimism and optimism in the debate on climate change, and a person can be pessimistic in some aspects and optimistic in others.
2. Pessimism and optimism were found in a varying degree in climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change or specific measures of mitigation.
3. The diversity of approaches can be due to the uncertainty of scientific climate models and the political and ideological assumptions on the measures taken.

Additionally, it would be great to talk about the following questions:

1. Are you an optimist or a pessimist in terms of climate change?
2. Why do you hold that position?
3. Is there anything that would change your position?

[outro music]

---